Rumors of War: Iran

And when ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars, be ye not troubled: for such things must needs be; but the end shall not be yet.     -Mark 13:7

It’s not lookin’ good, folks.

According to this article from Pat Buchanan, It looks like Ehud Olmert and President Bush have gotten together and concocted a plan to deal with Iran.  The solution looks like a military solution, and one to be enacted soon.

Most of the evidence is circumstantial: mock Israeli military missions, bellicose rhetoric, etc.  We’ve heard this before.  Thankfully, this has been thwarted before, when the US intelligence community released a report that flew in the face of the Bush administration’s frequent assertions about Iran’s nuclear capabilities.  The report indicated Iran is still years away from developing a nuclear weapon.

What makes me worry is the following: First, President Bush is on his way out, and an Obama victory is likely, in my opinion.  As inept as Senator Obama appears, Americans will probably vote for change rather than essentially the status quo, as a vote for McCain.  Second, the American foreign policy on its “Axis of Evil” of Iran, North Korea, and Iraq has already had failures in dealing with two of these countries: Iraq and North Korea, as Iraq is in a very costly mess and North Korea now has nuclear weapons.

Might the Bush administration feel motivated to act by the end of his term?  Why not?

The sad thing is that Congress has not stepped in his way, but have essentially kept the door open for a unnecessary military confrontation with Iran.

As I said, we have heard this rhetoric before, and there are plenty of intelligent individuals in the intelligence and military communities who would not support such a move (at least privately).  They know better, as does most of the American public.  Few want war.  If the public opinion has its way, war will be averted, or at least delayed.  This is the good news.

The Bush administration has been pumping the airwaves with anti-Iran propaganda for years.  They keep trying.  It only took a year or two before there was enough public support to attack Iraq once they got going.  Iran has taken longer.  I think it’s unlikely an attack will occur unless there is more public support than there currently is. 

Is support building?  Hard to tell. 

Will there be enough support built by the end of President Bush’s term?  Let’s hope not.

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Filed under foreign policy, Libertarian, politics

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